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数值预报产品在藏北高原可预报性检验
引用本文:央美,达瓦泽仁,贡觉顿珠,拉巴次仁,索朗塔杰.数值预报产品在藏北高原可预报性检验[J].安徽农业科学,2013(17):7620-7623,7675.
作者姓名:央美  达瓦泽仁  贡觉顿珠  拉巴次仁  索朗塔杰
作者单位:1. 西藏那曲地区气象局,西藏那曲,852000
2. 西藏自治区气象局网络中心,西藏拉萨85000
摘    要:利用青藏高原及邻近地区(70°~105°E、20°~40°N)2012年1~12月的资料,采用平均误差和均方根误差对EC模式和T213模式数值预报产品的500 hPa高度场进行检验,初步给出量化误差值,分析了2种模式在藏北高原的可预报性。结果发现,EC模式24、48、72h预报场在藏北高原的预报能力较强,T213模式相对于EC模式预报能力较弱,同时利用10次天气过程进行了误差检验及3 d滑动误差订正,取得了较好的误差订正效果。

关 键 词:数值预报产品  可预报性  检验  藏北高原

Assessment of the Forecasting Capacity of Numerical Forecast Products on the Northern Tibetan Plateau
Institution:YANG Mei;Nagchu Prefectural Meteorological Bureau;
Abstract:Abstract Using the methods of the mean error and the root - mean - square error, and data from Tibetan Plateau and its adjacent regions (70° -105°E, 20° -40°N) from January to December, 2012, the 500- hPa height contours provided by ECMWF (European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts) and by the T213 global model from the National Meteorological Center was assessed, and the quantization error to ana- lyses the applicability of these two models to the northern Tibetan Plateau was calculated. The results showed that the ECMWF 24 h, 48 h and 72 h forecast fields have a stronger forecasting capacity on the northern Tibetan Plateau while the T213 has comparatively a weaker forecasting capac- ity. At the same time, with ten weather processes, error check and three - day error correction was carried out with good error correction per- formance.
Keywords:Numeral forecast products  Forecasting capacity  Detection  Northern Tibet Plateau
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