Economic aspects of reproductive failure in dairy cattle. II. The decision to replace animals

Until now, economic research to support the dairy farmer's policy with respect to the replacement decision has mainly been concerned with culling for production. However, in most cases the replacement decision for cows suffering from ill health or the after-effects thereof is also an economic one. In this paper the question approached is: how long is it profitable to continue inseminating dairy cows with poor fertility, and differing in age and productive capacity, before the decision to cull them must be made? At each heat, the criterion for the decision is that a cow should be inseminated with the aim of retention if the sum of expected differences in profits during her remaining expected life in the case of pregnancy, compared with replacement at the optimal stage of the current lactation, still exceeds zero.This criterion has been expressed in an economic replacement model for dairy cows. The essence of the model is a comparison of expected incomes of a cow present in the herd with an average herd life of 4 lactations, an average calving interval of 365 days, age and stage of lactation) below which it is not profitable to inseminate empty cows has been calculated. This was done at 10 stages in each lactation, from 65 to 245 days after calving at 20-day intervals. In the first instance, these calculations were made within a herd with an average herd life of 4 lactations, an average claving interval of 365 days, an average milk production of slightly more than 5300 kg per cow per year and a genetic increase in milk production of 1% per year. Moreover, a time preference was assumed for present over future income (discounting).In this basic situation, it appeared to be profitable to continue inseminating cows with poor fertility for a long time: even up to 8–9 months after calving in young cows with an average production level or higher. It was concluded from a sensitivity analysis that the calculated critical production levels were practically independent of several factors, especially those (e.g., milk price) that affect the expected income of both the cow present in the herd and the replacement cow. Factors which did have a considerable influence were persistence of milk production during lactation, and repeatability of a longer calving interval of the cow concerned.Finally, the possible use of the present model for the replacement decision with respect to other diseases is discussed.