锦州地区暴雨预警信号发布技巧的研究

本项目通过对2019——2021年锦州地区112个气象观测站的分钟级降水数据进行统计分析,分别计算每个时次上的12小时、6小时、3小时及1小时的累计降水量。假设以累计降水量20mm为起点,每增加1mm降水时,向上浮动5mm的降水区间内发布暴雨蓝色、黄色以及橙色预警信号,以50mm为起点,每增加1mm降水时,向上浮动5mm的降水区间内发布暴雨红色预警信号,计算每个累计降水区间内的平均TS评分办法所得分数、提前时间以及有效性评分办法所得分数。找出各级暴雨预警信号预警信号准确率达到90%时,所对应的累计降水区间作为发布各级暴雨预警信号的最优降水区间,各级暴雨预警信号有效性评分办法得分最高时所对应的累计降水区间为该评分办法下的最优累计降水量区间。

Research on the threshold of issuing rainstorm alert in Jinzhou

5-minute precipitation during 2019-2021 in Jinzhou were used to calculate 12-hour, 6 hours, 3-hour, and 1-hour total precipitation for each station. The conclusions are as follows: if the precipitation continues to increase by 1-5mm, alert on rainstorm should be issued when the total precipitation of any station has reached 20mm, and red alert on rainstorm should be issued when the total precipitation has reached 50mm. In this paper, TS score, alert effectiveness score, and the amount of time advanced to issue the alert for different precipitation levels were analyzed. The precipitation level at which the accuracy of the alert reached 90% was selected as the threshold to issue the alert. The precipitation level at which the score on the alert effectiveness was the highest was recognized as the threshold to issue the alert under this scoring system.