非农就业质量如何影响山区农户土地转出稳定性——基于浙江省4县480户农户的观察

为厘清非农就业质量对山区农户土地转出稳定性的影响机制，基于2021年浙江省山区4县480户农户调查数据，采取OLS、Heckman两阶段以及2SLS等模型开展实证研究，同时采取Probit模型检验作用机制并结合案例加以佐证。结果表明：1）非农就业质量的改善激励山区农户提高土地转出的稳定性。2）非农就业质量显著影响老一代农户和“体制外”农户土地转出的稳定性，但是对新生代农户和“体制内”农户的影响不显著，同时，非农就业质量对土地转出稳定性的影响并不因为就业距离的远近而产生差异；3）非农就业质量影响土地转出稳定性的作用机制在于强化农户的城市融入意愿、弱化农户对地租的偏好以及弱化土地的社会保障功能。相关政策需要致力于提升山区农户的非农就业质量，提升和完善非农就业的稳定性、收入和保障制度。

How does the quality of non-farm employment affect the stability of land transfer from rural households in mountainous areas: Based on the observation of 480 households in four counties of Zhejiang Province

To clarify the influence mechanism of non-farm employment quality on the stability of land transfer from mountainous areas， an empirical research was conducted based on data from a survey of 480 farming households in 4 counties of Zhejiang Province in 2021， using OLS， Heckman two-stage and 2SLS models， as well as a Probit model to test the mechanism of action and support it with case studies. The results indicate that： 1） Improvements in the quality of non-farm employment provide incentives for mountain farmers to increase the stability of land transfer out. 2） The quality of non-farm employment significantly affects the stability of land transfer for the older generation of farmers and “outside system” farmers， but not for the new generation of farmers and “inside system” farmers. The quality of non-farm employment does not differ in terms of distance from employment； 3） The mechanisms by which the quality of non-farm employment affects the stability of land transfer lie in strengthening farmers’ willingness to integrate into cities， weakening their preference for land rent and weakening the social security function of land. Relevant policies are needed to aim the improvement of the quality of non-farm employment of mountain farmers， the stability of non-farm employment， income and security systems.