基于气候适宜度的吉林省烤烟产量评估

烤烟是吉林省的经济作物之一，也是农民增收的重要作物之一，掌握其产量变化对保障烟农增收十分必要。气候条件是对烤烟产量影响最大的因素，目前预测评估气象因子对吉林省烤烟产量影响方面的研究较少。因此，本文利用指数平滑法分离出1981—2018年吉林省烤烟趋势产量和气象产量，利用隶属函数法确定了旺长期（6月）降水和大田生长期可用时间是影响吉林省烤烟产量的重要气象因子，计算出每个县各个影响因子的适宜度，再通过信息熵值法计算出烤烟产量气候影响因子的权重，并计算出每个地市的综合气候适宜度，最后建立烤烟气象产量与地市综合气候适宜度的多元线性回归模型。结果表明，烟叶旺长期降水和大田生长期可用时间是吉林省烤烟产量的气象限制因素，其中烤烟旺长期降水影响权重占0.81，大田生长期可用时间影响权重占0.19。通过该方法建立的产量预报模型准确率在80%以上，该方法可以用于烤烟产量评估。

Evaluation of Flue-cured Tobacco Yield in Jilin Province Based on climate suitability

【Objective】Flue-cured tobacco is one of the economic crops in Jilin Province, and also one of the important crops for farmers to increase their income. It is very necessary for tobacco farmers to grasp the changes of their output. The biggest variable of meteorological influence on flue-cured tobacco yield. There are few studies on the pre evaluation of the impact of meteorology on the yield of flue-cured tobacco in Jilin Province. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out research in this area. In this study, 【Methods】the exponential smoothing method was used to separate the trend yield and meteorological yield of flue-cured tobacco in Jilin Province from 1981 to 2018. Using the membership function method, it was determined that the precipitation in June and the available time of field growth were the important climatic factors affecting the yield of flue-cured tobacco in Jilin Province, and the suitability of each influencing factor in each county was calculated. Then through the information entropy method, the influence weight of the climate factors affecting flue-cured tobacco was calculated, and the comprehensive climate suitability of each county and city was calculated. Finally, the regression model between the meteorological yield of flue-cured tobacco and the climate suitability of the city was established by multiple regression method. 【Results】The long-term precipitation of flue-cured tobacco and the field available time are the meteorological limiting factors for the yield of flue-cured tobacco in Jilin Province. Among them, the influence weight of long-term precipitation of flue-cured tobacco accounts for 81%, and the influence weight of field available time accounts for 19%. The accuracy of the yield prediction model established by this method is over 80%. 【Conclusion】This method can be used to evaluate the yield of flue-cured tobacco.