2021年秋季气象条件对农业生产的影响评价

2021年秋季（9−11月），全国平均气温为10.5℃，较常年同期偏高；全国平均降水量为157.9mm，为1961年来最高值，尤其西北地区、华北、黄淮区域平均降水量均为1961年以来历史同期最高值；全国平均日照时数为564.9h，为1961年以来第9低值。东北地区大部初霜期较常年明显偏晚，全国秋收区光温条件总体利于作物灌浆成熟和收晒。西北地区东部、华北大部和黄淮北部秋季前期多雨和寡照突出，属典型“埋汰秋”，麦播期普遍推迟7～15d，秋季中后期天气转好，冬小麦播种速度加快。秋末华北、黄淮、西北地区东部冬小麦发育期较常年普遍偏晚7～25d，处于分蘖期的占比低于常年和2020年同期，全国冬小麦晚弱苗比例高于常年和2020年同期。南方大部地区秋播期间农田土壤墒情适宜，冬小麦、油菜播种和出苗顺利，发育期基本接近常年。

Influence Report of Weather on Agricultural Production in Autumn 2021

Based on the daily national meteorological data in autumn in 2021, relationships between meteorological factors and agricultural production in China were analyzed using statistical methods. The results showed that the national average air temperature in autumn in 2021 was 10.5℃, which was warmer than the same period from 1981 to 2010. The national average precipitation in autumn in 2021 was 157.9mm, which was the most since 1961. Additionally, the average precipitation in northwest China, north China and Huanghuai region was also the most respectively since 1961. The national average sunshine was 564.9 hours, which was the ninth from the bottom since 1961. The early frost in most of the agricultural areas of northeast China significantly occurred later than the normal year. The suitable sunshine and temperature in the most of autumn harvesting area in China were favorable for crop grain-filling, maturing, harvesting and drying. However, continuous rainy and cloudy weather in the early autumn in the eastern part of northwest China, most of north China and northern Huanghuai region disrupted the autumn crop harvesting. Therefore, the sowing date of winter wheat was delayed for 7−15 days due to delay of maize harvesting. The weather turned better in the middle and late autumn. Thus, the sowing speed of winter wheat was accelerated. At the end of autumn, the date of phenological stage of winter wheat in north China, Huanghuai and the east of northwest China was later for generally 7−25 days than the normal year, where the percentage of tillering stage for winter wheat was lower than that in the same period in the normal year and last year. The proportion of weak winter wheat seedling in China was higher than the same period in the normal year and last year. The soil moisture was suitable for autumn sowing in most of agricultural areas in south China, in which winter wheat and rapeseed sowing progressed well and was close to the normal year.