造林技术措施对马尾松林分生长影响的定量分析与预测

该文利用贵州省台江县马尾松造林技术试验林 4～ 10年生林分的逐年测定资料 ,以林分平均树高和平均胸径为基准变量、各主要造林技术措施和林分年龄为说明变量 ,对建立马尾松林分生长的数量化回归模型进行初步研究 .结果表明 ,采用数量化回归途径建立马尾松林分生长的预测模型是可行的 ,且所建模型具有较高的预测精度 ,但用于拟合回归模型的数据以采用林龄为 4a以上的测定资料为宜 .通过对回归模型偏相关系数的定量分析 ,可以确定马尾松人工林培育的关键技术措施是立地控制、遗传控制和密度控制 ;同时 ,还可根据各项造林技术措施和林分年龄 ,预测马尾松林分的生长 .

Quantitative analysis and prediction of effect of silvicultural techniques on growth of Masson pine plantation

The experimental Masson pine plantations were established in Taijiang County of Guizhou Province. Based on the yearly investigation to permanent plots of the 4 10 years old stands, the mean height and DBH of the stands were made as benchmark variables, and main silvicultural techniques and ages of the stands were made as explanatory variables, quantitative regression models of predicting growth of Masson pine plantation were established. The results show that adoption of the quantitative regression way is feasible for establishing such models, and prediction precision of the models is higher, but it is suitable that growth data of the plantation to be fitted the regression models should be more than 4 years old. By quantitative analysis of partial correlation coefficients of the regression models, the key silvicultural techniques of growing Masson pine plantation can be scientifically determined as site control, inheritance control and density control. The models can more accurately predict the growth of Masson pine plantation according to silvicultural techniques and age of the plantation. The result can provide foundation for directional cultivation and management of industrial Masson pine timber plantation. Because the growth data of the experimental plantation were only surveyed until 10\|year\|old, the prediction the quantitative regression models to plantation growth had certain limitation, and a further improvement to the models is needed.