| GM（1,1）模型在农机发展预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 毕文平,苏尚华.GM（1,1）模型在农机发展预测中的应用[J].河北农业大学学报,1992,15(3):81-86. |
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| 作者姓名： | 毕文平 苏尚华 |
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| 作者单位： | 河北省廊坊市农林局，河北省廊坊市农林局，河北省廊坊市农林局，河北农大机电系 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文应用灰色系统理论及专家调控方法,对廊坊市1988～1995年农机化发展进行了预测,预测结果:历史拟合误差平均为4.74％;小误差概率均接近或等于1,对社会经济时间数列方差比小于0.35,并针对预测结果与目前农机现状提出了六点发展衣机化的措施与建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 农机化 灰色预测 |
Study on the Application of Grey Control System for Agricultural Mechnization in Development and Predication |
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| Bi Wengping,Wang Baiqing,Kang Desheng,Agricultural And Forestry Bureau of Langfang city,Langfang,China
Su Shanghua,Dept. of Mech. and Eleo. Eng. in. Agri.,Hebei Agri. Univ,Baoding,China.Study on the Application of Grey Control System for Agricultural Mechnization in Development and Predication[J].Journal of Agricultural University of Hebei,1992,15(3):81-86. |
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| Authors: | Bi Wengping Wang Baiqing Kang Desheng Agricultural And Forestry Bureau of Langfang city Langfang China
Su Shanghua Dept of Mech and Eleo Eng in Agri Hebei Agri Univ Baoding China |
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| Abstract: | This article is devoted to predicting the development of Langfang city's agricultural mechnization during 1988-1995 by using vague(Grey System) theory and the method of experts' adjustment. The result is: the historial average error is 4.74%; the probability of the small error is close to 1; the ratio is less than 0.35, According to the result obtained and the present condition of the agricultural mechnization six measures and suggestions are put forward in this article. |
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| Keywords: | agricultural mechnization grey predication suggest |
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