基于生态足迹和灰色关联度的甘肃省可持续发展研究

采用生态足迹分析法对甘肃省2000-2008年的人均生态足迹和人均生态承载力进行了测算，并应用灰色关联度分析法分析了甘肃省经济增长与资源消耗的关系。结果表明:甘肃省人均生态足迹由1.909 hm²增长到2.843 hm²，年均增长5.1%。人均生态承载力由0.949 hm²增长到0.969 hm²，年均增长0.26%。人均生态赤字由0.96 hm²增长到1.874 hm²，年均增长8.72%。生态协调系数由1.337降为1.12，年均下降2.19%。建筑用地、林地生态足迹与经济发展的关联度最大。第一产业对生态赤字的影响最大，第三产业对生态赤字的影响最小。

Study on Sustainable Development in Gansu Province Based on Ecological Footprint and Gray Correlation Theory

The method of ecological footprint was used to calculate the ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of the Gansu Province from years of 2000 to 2008 in this paper. Then the relationship between resources consumption and economic development was analyzed based on the Gray Relational Analysis Method. The results indicate that ecological footprint per capital in Gansu got from 1.909 hm² to 2.843 hm², average annual growth rate is 5.10%; ecological capability per capital got from 0.949 hm² to 0.969 hm², average annual growth rate is 0.26%; ecological deficit per capital got from 0.960 hm² to 1.874 hm², average annual growth rate is 8.72%; ecological coordination declined from 0.960 hm² to 1.874 hm², the rate decreased 2.19% average annual. The buildup land and forest footprint associated the greatest degree with the economic development. The primary industry has the greatest impact on the ecological deficit while the tertiary industry with minimal impact on ecological capacity.