| 人工神经网络在棉铃虫发生等级预报中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄健,李晶,张璞,李杨.人工神经网络在棉铃虫发生等级预报中的应用[J].安徽农业科学,2010,38(23):12913-12915,12922. |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄健 李晶 张璞 李杨 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐,830002
2. 新疆植保站,新疆乌鲁木齐,830006 |
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| 基金项目： | 中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项，新疆气象局局级项目资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 国内棉铃虫划分为热带型、亚热带型、温带型和新疆型4个地理型,预测棉铃虫的发生对棉铃虫的防治和安排农事生产有着重大意义。笔者选取新疆麦盖提县植保站棉铃虫发生资料与同期气象资料按月平均处理后,通过相关分析法选出与发生等级相关的因子作为预测因子,分别用逐步回归法和人工神经网络建立该地的预测预报模型。结果表明,BP神经网络预报模型的拟合精度和预报精度高于逐步回归模型,在干旱区,温度对棉铃虫发生的影响强于降雨量的影响。
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| 关 键 词： | 棉铃虫 人工神经网络 逐步回归 预报 |
Application of Artificial Neuron Network in Forecasting for Occurrence Scale of Helicoverpa armigera |
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| HUANG Jian et al.Application of Artificial Neuron Network in Forecasting for Occurrence Scale of Helicoverpa armigera[J].Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences,2010,38(23):12913-12915,12922. |
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| Authors: | HUANG Jian |
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| Institution: | HUANG Jian et al (Insititute of Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830002) |
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| Abstract: | The prediction of occurrence scale of Helicoverpa armigera is important in controlling and many aspects of cotton.The populations of Helicoverpa armigera in all of China can be divided into four regional groups,namely,the tropical,subtropical,temperate,and Xinjiang geotypes. In this study,the occurrence scales of Xinjiang geotypes Helicoverpa armigera in arid will be forecasted. Dealing with the occurrence data of Helicoverpa armigera and meteorological data within the same time in Maigaiti county of Xinjia... |
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| Keywords: | Helicoverpa armigera Artificial neural network Stepwise regression Forecasting |
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