低山丘陵区县域生态用地演变及生态服务价值响应

为研究低山丘陵区域生态用地变化与生态服务价值转移，以泗水县为研究对象，采用土地利用变化动态度模型和生态系统服务价值评估方法，分析泗水县的生态用地变化特征及生态服务价值损益，利用Logistic回归模型，探讨生态用地变化的驱动因素。结果表明：1997-2017年，泗水县生态用地面积变化明显，呈不断减少趋势，共减少3.60×10³ hm²，2007-2017年生态用地的总体转移速率远大于1997-2007年间的转移速率，草地的转移面积占比最大，且转出部分大于转入部分，属于减少型生态用地，而林地、水域和耕地属于增加型生态用地。1997-2017，研究区生态系统服务价值总量呈先减少后增加的趋势，总体共增加1.42×10⁸元，耕地和草地的生态系统服务价值呈减少趋势，林地和水域的生态系统服务价值呈增加趋势，其中林地对生态系统服务价值的贡献最大。回归分析结果表明到河流的距离、人口密度和到乡镇中心的距离是影响生态用地演变的主要驱动因素。研究结果可为泗水县生态补偿和资源开发提供技术方法，也可为山区生态规划和生态可持续发展提供重要依据。

Evolution of ecological land use in low-mountain and hilly areas and response to ecological service value

We studied changes in ecological land use and the transfer of ecological service value in the low mountain and hilly regions of Sishui County. We used the dynamic model of land use change and the evaluation of ecosystem service value to evaluate the characteristics of ecological land usage changes and their impact on the profit and loss values for ecological services in Sishui County. Logistic regression modelling allowed us to determine the driving factors for these changes and discuss their impact. The results showed that from 1997 to 2017, the area allocated for ecological use in Sishui County changed significantly, decreasing over time with a total decrease of 3.60×10³ hm² over this twenty years. The overall transfer rate for ecological land between 2007 and 2017 was much higher than the transfer rate for 1997 to 2007. In addition, grassland was shown to be the largest contributor to these transfers, the outward transfer was always larger than the inward transfer. The proportion of ecological land in this area was reduced while forest, water areas and cultivated land were increased. In this twenty years, the total value of ecosystem services in the research area decreased over time, but was preceded by a short period of increasing value resulting in an overall increase of 1.42×10⁸ yuan over this time period. The ecosystem service value of cultivated land and grasslands both decreased over time while that of forest and water areas increased over the same time period; forests made the most significant contribution. Regression analysis showed that the distance to the river, population density, and distance to the town center and cultivated land were the major driving factors affecting the evolution of ecological land. These results could provide insight into determining ecological compensation and resource development in Sishui County, and provide important context for ecological planning and sustainable development in mountainous areas.