ECMWF细网格产品在一次大到暴雨天气预报中的释用

利用常规气象观测、区域自动站加密、ECWMF细网格模式产品(0.25°×0.25°)资料,针对2017年7月23-24日发生在青海省东部地区一次大到暴雨天气过程进行分析,得出ECWMF细网格资料地面至中高层湿区的叠加区域及水汽通量散度的汇合区域对大到暴雨落区的预报具有较好的指示意义。对于大雨或暴雨以上量级的强降水,单一模式预报量级均偏小,落区偏西,而综合多种模式的相关产品能给预报提供更好的参考,本地化QPF客观产品对大到暴雨预报具有较好的参考价值。

Application of ECMWF Thin Grid Model Products in a Heavy Rainfall Forecast

Based on the data of conventional meteorological observation data, regional automatic station encryption, and ECWMF thin grid model (0.25 ° × 0.25 °) , A heavy rainstorm occurred in the eastern Qinghai Province from July 23 to July 24 ,2017 is analyzed in the paper. the result shows that the ECWMF fine-grid data like overlay area of high humidity in the middle and upper layer, the convergence area of water vapor flux divergence are good indicators for forecasting heavy rainstorm area. But for heavy rainfall and above, the single-model forecasting is small in magnitude and westward to rainfall zone, while related products of multiple models provide a better reference to forecasting, and the localized QPF objective products have valuable reference to large-scale rainstorm forecast .