Modeling the probability of observing Armillaria root disease in the Black Hills |
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| Authors: | M A Kallas R M Reich W R Jacobi J E Lundquist |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Forest Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523;2. E‐mail: william.jacobi@colostate.edu (for correspondence);3. Department of Bioagricultural Sciences and Pest Management, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523;4. USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mt. Research Station, 240 W., Prospect Rd., Fort Collins, CO 80526, USA |
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| Abstract: | Armillaria root disease (ARD) occurrence on ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) is not uniform in the Black Hills of South Dakota, USA. To help manage this ecosystem, a model was developed to predict the probability of observing diseased trees. A kernel density estimator was used to estimate the probability of observing ARD using presence data from two field studies. An eight‐parameter regression equation using topographical data (Universal Trans Mercator coordinates, elevation and slope) derived from a Digital Elevation Model was fitted to the estimated probabilities and the residuals kriged to produce correction factors for the regression estimates. The final model, which had a relative mean squared error of 0.128, identified two peaks of high probability in the north‐west portion of the Black Hills and several peaks of moderate probability throughout the Black Hills. |
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