鄂托克前旗近50年降水变化特征分析

本文利用鄂托克前旗1967-2018年气象观测站近50年的气象资料,对鄂托克前旗降水特征进行分析。结果表明：整体来说，鄂托克前旗的年降水量变化呈现微弱降低趋势，每10a大约减少1.2mm；28a时间尺度决定的主周期控制着该地区的年降水变化特征，通过周期和突变分析，预计未来三年左右降水高于多年平均值，随后的14年左右时间内降水量呈现减少趋势，逐渐低于多年平均降水量。

Analysis on the characteristics of precipitation change in Otog Front Banner in the past 50 years

In this paper, the precipitation characteristics of Otog Front Banner are analyzed by using the meteorological data of the meteorological observation station in recent 50 years from 1967 to 2018. The results show that: on the whole, the annual precipitation of Otog Front Banner shows a weak decreasing trend, about 1.2 mm per 10 years; The main period determined by the 28a time scale controls the annual precipitation variation characteristics of the region. Through the analysis of period and mutation, it is predicted that the precipitation in the next three years or so will be higher than the multi-year average value, and then the precipitation will decrease in the next 14 years or so, gradually lower than the multi-year average precipitation.