中国稻飞虱发生面积与大气环流特征指数的关系(英文)

[目的]建立稻飞虱发生面积的预测模型,从大气环流的角度对每年的发生面积进行预测,指导稻飞虱的防治工作。[方法]分析历年的大气环流特征量的资料,选取与中国稻飞虱发生面积显著相关的大气环流因子,采用逐步回归法,建立预测模型。[结果]筛选出了与稻飞虱发生面积呈显著相关的因子,并分别建立了基于当年10月大西洋欧洲环流型W、当年10月太平洋区极涡面积指数、当年8月北美副高强度指数、当年6月大西洋欧洲环流型W、当年2月北美大西洋副高北界、当年10月大西洋欧洲区极涡强度指数和上年11月亚洲区极涡强度指数的白背飞虱发生面积预测模型和基于当年7月东太平洋副高强度指数、上年10月北半球极涡面积指数、上年11月亚洲区极涡强度指数、当年9月北美大西洋副高北界、当年1月北非大西洋北美副高北界、上年9月太阳黑子和当年9月东太平洋副高面积指数的褐飞虱发生面积预测模型。[结论]通过逐步回归法建立的基于大气环流因子的模型拟合效果较好,可用于实际预测。

Relationship between Rice Planthopper Occurrence Area in China and Atmospheric Circulation Indices

[Objective] This study aimed to establish models based on atmospheric circulation indices for forecasting the area attacked by rice planthopper every year,and to provide guide for preventing and controlling planthopper damage.[Method] The data related to rice planthopper occurrence and atmospheric circulation were collected and analyzed with the method of stepwise regression to establish the prediction models.[Result] The factors significantly related to the area attacked by rice planthopper were selected.Two types of prediction models were established.One was for Sogatella furcifera (Horváth),based on Atlantic-Europe circulation pattern W in October in that year,Pacific polar vortex area index in October in that year,North America subtropical high index in August in that year,Atlantic-Europe circulation pattern W in June in that year,northern boundary of North America subtropical high in February in that year,Atlantic-Europe polar vortex intensity index in October in that year and Asia polar vortex intensity index in November in the last year; the other type of prediction models were for Nilaparvata lugens (Stal),based on the Eastern Pacific subtropical high intensity index in July in that year,northern hemisphere polar vortex area index in October in the last year,Asia polar vortex strength index in November in the last year,north boundary of North America-Atlantic subtropical high in September in that year,north boundary of North Africa-Atlantic-North America subtropical high in January in that year,sunspot in September of the last year and eastern Pacific subtropical high area index in September in that year.[Conclusion] With the stepwise regression,the forecasting equations of the rice planthopper occurrence established based on the atmospheric circulation indices could be used for actual forecast.