木质林产品碳计量方法对比分析及应用的潜在影响

森林采伐和木质林产品的使用影响了森林生态系统的自然碳平衡。为解决目前木质林产品碳储量归属和碳排放分配的公平性和合理性问题，为将来中国制定林业政策和应对气候变化谈判提供参考，对比分析了政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）缺省法、储量变化法、生产法和大气流动法等4种计量方法在计量范围、碳储量归属和碳排放分配及其应用等方面的不同；然后从中国未来承担减排责任和不承担减排责任两方面分析了选择不同方法将给中国带来的潜在影响。储量变化法对中国较为有利，建议中国应率先加强不同计量方法学应用潜在影响方面的定量研究，并补充完善计量参数不确定方面的研究内容。图1表1参19

Carbon accounting approaches for wood products and potential applications

Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change（UNFCCC），all parties are required to report their greenhouse gas （GHG） emissions and removals with wood products being an important component of the national inventory. How to deal with the fairness and potential application of different approaches has been debated. This study compared discrepancies from four approaches: the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC） default approach，the stock change approach，the production approach，and the atmospheric flow approach，regarding removals and distribution of emissions，to determine impacts of trade and forest benefits. Principles of choice，including feasibility，applicability，the relation to UNFCCC and the Kyoto protocol，and the context of national policy were analyzed. Then，potential implications of the different accounting approaches on the wood products market and sustainable forest management in China，based on whether responsibility for emission reductions in the future were undertaken or not，were reviewed. Results showed that the stock change approach may be favorable for China. Using this approach，China could strengthen its quantitative data concerning potential implications of different accounting approaches and diminish the uncertainty of parameters，such as decay rate，lifetime，recycle rate.［Ch，1 fig. 1 tab. 19 ref.］