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| 一维水文要素时间序列及可预报时间尺度研究 | |
| 引用本文： | 陈南祥,张金炳,张民安. 一维水文要素时间序列及可预报时间尺度研究[J]. 灌溉排水学报, 2002, 21(1): 41-44,52 |
| 作者姓名： | 陈南祥 张金炳 张民安 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 华北水利水电学院,河南,郑州,450008 2. 中国地质大学,北京,100083 3. 陕西渭南市水利局,陕西,渭南,714000 |
| 摘 要： | 用浑沌理论分析了一维水文要素时间序列的模式特征和中长期预报的可行性 ,并给出了水文要素可预报时间尺度的衡量指标。经过水文系统的实例研究表明 :水文系统具有混沌性 ,水文要素可预报时间尺度是存在的 |
| 关 键 词： | 水文要素 可预报时间尺度 混沌 分维数 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-646X(2002)01-0041-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2001-10-08 |
Study on the Fractal Dimension and Forecastable Time Scale of a Time Series of Hydrological Elements |
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| CHEN Nan xiang ,ZHANG Jin bing ,ZHANG Min an. Study on the Fractal Dimension and Forecastable Time Scale of a Time Series of Hydrological Elements[J]. Journal of Irrigation and Drainage, 2002, 21(1): 41-44,52 | |
| Authors: | CHEN Nan xiang ZHANG Jin bing ZHANG Min an |
| Affiliation: | CHEN Nan xiang 1,ZHANG Jin bing 2,ZHANG Min an |
| Abstract: | Forecastable time scale of hydrological elements is a basal question in extended forecasting of hydrological elements. On the basis of chaos theory, the pattern characters and the possibility of extended forecasting on hydrological elements are analyzed in this paper. The indices for measuring forcastable time scale of hydrological elements also are presented. The analysis results with two practical hydrological systems show that there are chaos characters in hydrological systems, and forecastable time scale of hydrological elements exists. |
| Keywords: | hydrological element forecastable time scale chaos fractal dimension |
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