南疆地区气温变化及其对红枣产量的影响

通过分析南疆阿克苏、和田、喀什三地区1990~2011年内年平均温度、红枣各生育时期均温变化趋势,研究了温度对红枣产量的影响及对红枣产量变化的贡献情况。22年内南疆三地区年均温及红枣各生育时期均温均呈上升趋势,全年均温、萌芽开花期均温和果实膨大成熟期均温与红枣产量呈显著正相关,表明温度上升是提高红枣产量的重要原因。随机效应模型实证分析表明,南疆三地区温度变化对红枣产量变化的贡献率为7.54%,年温度每升高1℃,红枣产量提高9%~11.7%。

Air Temperature Change in Southern Xinjiang and Its Influence on Jujube Yield

Through analyzing the change trends of annual mean temperature and mean temperature at each growth stage of jujube in Aksu , Hotan and Kashgar , southern Xinjiang , from 1990 to 2011 , the effect of air temperature on yield and the contribution to yield change of jujube were studied .The annual mean temper-ature and the mean temperature at each growth stage of jujube in the 3 regions increased in the tested 22 years.The annual mean temperature and the mean temperature at sprout -anthesis and fruit enlargement -maturity periods were all significantly correlated to the yield of jujube , which indicated that air temperature rise was the major reason for increasing jujube yield .Empirical analysis of random effect model showed that the contribution rate of air temperature on jujube yield change was 7 .54%.The jujube yield increased by 9%~11 .7%with every 1℃increase of annual mean temperature .