南方丘陵区农村居民点离散度时空演变及其影响因素——以江西省鹰潭市为例

为探究南方丘陵区农村居民点空间离散分布规律,以江西省鹰潭市为研究对象,基于鹰潭市1996年、2009年和2018年三期土地利用数据,运用景观格局指数和主成分分析法构建农村居民点离散度指数,采用空间自相关和地理探测器等方法定量探究鹰潭市近二十年农村居民点离散度时空演变特征及其影响因素。结果表明:1)1996—2009年和2009—2018年农村居民点面积年平均增长量分别为183.35、204.14hm~2/a,鹰潭市农村居民点规模仍处于增长阶段,但聚集程度降低,破碎化程度上升。2)1996、2009和2018年,各乡镇农村居民点离散度均值分别为0.41、0.42和0.45,农村居民点离散度级别为Ⅰ级的乡镇分别占乡镇总数的41.18%、35.29%和26.47%,级别为Ⅱ级的乡镇分别占乡镇总数的35.29%、44.12%和50.00%,级别为Ⅲ级的乡镇均占乡镇总数的23.53%。乡镇农村居民点离散度整体上升,区域农村居民点离散度具有明显的空间聚集性。3)1996—2018年,地形位指数和人口密度对农村居民点离散度的影响先增大后减小,到城镇和公路距离对农村居民点离散度的影响先减小后增大,影响因素之间存在此消彼长的关系。地形位指数、到公路距离和人口密度为农村居民点离散度主导因素,到城镇距离、到河流距离、地均GDP为农村居民点离散度重要因素,各主导因素在不同时期能增强其他影响因子对农村居民点离散度的解释力。本研究可为南方丘陵区农村居民点规划统筹提供科学依据。

Spatial-temporal evolution and impact factors of rural settlements dispersion in the hilly region of Southern China: A case study of Yingtan City, Jiangxi Province

In order to explore the spatial dispersion distribution of rural settlements in the hilly region of southern China, Yingtan City of Jiangxi Province was taken as the research object. Based on land use data in Yingtan City in 1996, 2009 and 2018, the landscape pattern index and principal component analysis method were adopted to construct the index of rural settlements dispersion, and spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of rural settlements dispersion and its influencing factors during the recent two decades in Yingtan city were explored by using the spatial autocorrelation and geodetector method. The results showed that: 1)The average annual of rural residential areas respectively increased was 183. 35 and 204. 14 hm²/a from 1996 to 2009 and from 2009 to 2018. The total scale of rural residential areas in Yingtan City kept growing, however, there was descending in aggregation degree and increasing in fragmentation level. 2)In 1996, 2009 and 2018, the mean values of the rural settlements dispersion degree in each township were 0. 41, 0. 42, and 0. 45, respectively. The total number of townships, whose rural settlements were classified as level I, accounted for 41. 18%, 35. 29% and 26. 47%. The townships of level II accounted for 35. 29%, 44. 12%, and 50. 00%, and the townships with level III accounted for 23. 53%. The rural settlements dispersion of townships were increased overall and regional rural settlements dispersion had obvious spatial aggregation. 3)From 1996 to 2018, the influence of topographic position index and population density on rural settlements dispersion first increased and then decreased, and the influence of distance to towns and roads on rural settlements dispersion first decreased and then increased. The relationships between the influencing factors were one factor wanes, the other waxes. In conclusion, the topographic index, distance to roads and population density are the dominant factors for rural settlements dispersion. The distance to towns, distance to rivers, and GDP per area are important factors for rural settlements dispersion. Each dominant factor can enhance the explanatory power of other influencing factors for rural settlements dispersion in different periods. This study provides a scientific basis for the planning and coordination of rural settlements in the hilly region of South China.