中国主粮生产机械化水平的时空演变及其驱动机制

基于改进多边形面积法,对2003—2017年中国主粮生产的机械化水平进行测算,运用泰尔指数分析东、中、西3大区域在主粮生产机械化水平上的差异,进而采用象限图和面板计量模型揭示主粮生产机械化水平的省域时空演变规律及其驱动机制。结果表明:1)2003—2017年中国主粮生产综合机械化率由38.03%提高到74.61%,并呈现出小麦玉米稻谷的特征,其中小麦3个机械化环节较为均衡,稻谷和玉米仍存在明显短板。2)东、中、西3大区域内差异对全国主粮生产综合机械化总差异的贡献率平均高达71.28%,其中尤以西部地区内部各省域差异最为突出,且其主粮生产综合机械化水平远低于中、东部地区。3)主粮生产综合机械化率的领军型和低速型省域大多位于中国平原地区和相对地广人稀的西部地区,发展型和滞后型省域基本位于西南山区和中东部山地丘陵区,其中西南山区是主粮生产机械化水平最低、发展速度最慢的区域。4)地形起伏因素是影响主粮生产机械化水平的第一要素,提高小麦和玉米种植比重对提升主粮生产机械化的促进作用也较突出,提高农民收入水平和农户耕地面积的促进作用相对较小,户均劳动力数量则具有负向驱动作用。

Spatial-temporal evolution and driving mechanism of mechanization level of staple food grain production in China

Based on the improved polygon area method and Thiel index, this study analyzed the mechanization level of staple food grain production(MLSFGP)of China and the level differentiation in eastern, central and western areas from 2003 to 2017. By using quadrant diagram and panel data model, the study also analyzed the spatial-temporal evolution and the driving mechanism of MLSFGP of the 31 provinces in Mainland China. The results showed that: 1)From 2003 to 2017, the comprehensive mechanization rate of staple food grain production increased from 38. 03% to 74. 61% and showed the characteristic of wheat>corn>paddy rice. Wheat had a relative balanced development in its three links of tractor ploughing, mechanical sowing and mechanical harvesting. However, the weak link of mechanization of corn production was mechanical harvesting, and the weak link of mechanization of paddy rice production was mechanical sowing. 2)Intraregional difference among the eastern, central and western areas contributed 71. 28% to the overall disparity of MLSFGP in China, and the difference among the provinces in the western area was much bigger than that of the central and eastern areas. At the same time, the MLSFGP of the western area was far lower than that of the central and eastern areas. 3)Provinces of the leading type and the slowing type of MLSFGP were mainly located in the plain region and the scarcely populated region in western area with abundant croplands, while provinces of the developing type and the lagging type of MLSFGP were mostly located in the mountain region in southwest China and the hilly region of the central and eastern area. As to the mountain region in southwest China, it had both the lowest level and the slowest development speed in mechanization of staple food grain production. 4)The factor of topographic relief had the greatest positive influence on MLSFGP, increasing the plant proportion of wheat and corn could also have an evident positive effect on MLSFGP, while enhancing peasants'' income and enlarging their cropland area had relatively weaker positive effect. The labor amount per farmer household had an obvious negative effect on MLSFGP.