| 基于TSF-Stanford模型的广东省家用电脑废弃量估算研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 何捷娴,樊宏,尹荔松,叶高南,蒋龙川,牛双蛟.基于TSF-Stanford模型的广东省家用电脑废弃量估算研究[J].绿色科技,2013(10):233-235. |
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| 作者姓名： | 何捷娴 樊宏 尹荔松 叶高南 蒋龙川 牛双蛟 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 五邑大学经济管理学院,广东江门,529030
2. 五邑大学分析测试中心,广东江门,529030 |
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| 基金项目： | 广东省低碳发展专项资金项目(编号2012-055)；广东省高等学校科技创新重点项目(编号cxzd1129)；广东省中国科学院全面战略合作项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据近年来广东省家用电脑的销售量,采用时间序列预测法预测了2012～2020年的销售量,运用斯坦福估算模型估算了2012～2022年的废弃量。结果表明:逐年稳步上升的家用电脑销售量,随着时间的推移将建立一个巨大的潜在丢弃池,累计到2022年废弃量将达到4154.19万台。对广东省开展废旧家用电脑回收工作提出了建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 家用电脑 销售量 废弃量 时间序列预测 斯坦福估算模型 |
Estimation of Waste Quantities of Home Computers in Guangdong Province Based on TSF-Stanford EM |
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| He Jiexian
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Fan Hong
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Yin Lisong
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Ye Gaonan
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Jiang Longchuan
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Niu shuangjiao.Estimation of Waste Quantities of Home Computers in Guangdong Province Based on TSF-Stanford EM[J].LVSE DASHIJIU,2013(10):233-235. |
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| Authors: | He Jiexian Fan Hong Yin Lisong Ye Gaonan Jiang Longchuan Niu shuangjiao |
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| Institution: | a ((1. School of Economics and Management, Wuyi University, Jiangmen 529020, China; 2. Analysis and Testing Center, Wuyi University, ]iangmen 529020, China)) |
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| Abstract: | According to the home computer sales of Guangdong Province in recent years, this study uses time series forecasting method to predict the sales from 2012 to 2020, and uses Stanford estimation model to estimate the waste quantities from 2012 to 2022. The results show that home computer sale quantity increases steadily year by year, thus it will build a huge pool of potential discards over time, and the obsolete volume will reach 41. 5419 million units accumulated to 2022. The study also puts forward the proposals of how to recycle the waste home computers. |
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| Keywords: | home computer sales waste quantities time series forecasting Stanford estimation model |
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