山东省烟台市近年降水资源变化对农业的影响

为了研究烟台市降水资源变化特征及其对农业的影响，选取烟台市10个地面观测站降水资料，采用滑动平均法和线性倾向率等方法，对其年际动态变化和年内分配、旱涝状况等进行分析，分析了山东省烟台市1961-2008年的降水量变化特征，总结了烟台市降水变化规律；利用对比分析法，研究了烟台市降水资源变化对农业的影响。结果表明：烟台市在近48年降水变化中，降水量总体呈下降趋势；越冬作物小麦生育期降水量呈减少趋势，且该时期的平均降水量比小麦实际平均耗水量少221 mm，远远不能满足小麦生理需水要求；秋作物玉米生育期降水量有明显减少的趋势，作物生育期降水能够满足玉米生育期耗水量，但夏季降水量相对变率增大，出现旱涝灾害的机会增大，影响农作物的可持续发展。

The Influence of the Changes of Precipitation Resource to Agriculture Nearly 48 Years in Yantai, Shandong

Database of precipitation amount in the area of Yantai from 10 monitoring stations was gathered and analyzed in the method of moving-average,linear tendency rate and so on,in order to study the changing patterns of precipitation and its effect to the yield of local main crops.Characteristic of local precipitation from 1961 to 2008 was raised,and in the process annual dynamic variation,distribution and evaluation of precipitation amount was put forward too.The effect of precipitation amount to agricultural yield was analyzed through the method of comparative analysis.The results showed that a downward trend in the variation of precipitation amount in the lately 48 years,the same trend of precipitation was found in the growing season of winter wheat and the sum of total precipitation in this period was 221 mm,which was less than the necessary amount in average.The variation of precipitation during the growing season of autumn corn also showed obvious decreasing trend,while the total quantity could meet the requirement of the crop.The relative variability of the summer precipitation which might cause more frequent drought or flood disaster influenced the sustainable development of agriculture.