油菜菌核病发生流行与气象因素关系及预测模型研究

油菜菌核病是中国油菜上的主要病害之一，为了明确气象因素与发病间的关系，提高预测能力，利用嘉兴市1980-2010年的气象因子与油菜菌核病田间实际发生数据进行相关性分析。结果表明：3月下旬-4月上旬降雨量、4月上旬的雨日数与病害呈极显著正相关，4月中旬日照时数呈显著负相关，气温对油菜菌核病影响较小。在相关性分析的基础上，采用逐步回归分析法，利用降雨量、雨日、日照、气温等气象因子组建了6个病害预测模型，历史回测检验结果：模型5和模型6发病程度（级）拟合程度高，预测能力强，适宜于嘉兴本地乃至浙北地区。

A Study of Relationship Between Field Occurrence and Meterological Factors of Sclerotinia Stem Rot in Oilseed Rape and Its Prediction Model

Sclerotinia stem rot is a major disease in oilseed rape.In order to improve the ability of predicting the occurrence trends of the Sclerotinia disease in oilseed rape,the relationship of occurrence and meterological factors of this disease was analyzed.Based on the correlation analysis between the meterological data and the occurrence data of Sclerotinia stem rot in the field oilseed rape in Jiaxing from 1980 to 2010,it was showed that amount of rainfall from the last ten days in March to the first 10 days in April and the rainy days in the first 10 days in April were significantly positive correlated with the disease incidence,while the sunning days in the second 10 days in April was significantly negative correlated with the incidence,and the mean temperature had a minor effect on the disease.Then using the stepwise regression analysis method,six prediction models were established based on meterological factors,such as rainfall,amounts of rainy days and sunning days,temperature.After the validation with historical data,the 5th and 6th models were showed higher goodness of fit,which could be further used for predicting the disease occurrence in Jiaxing and the northern Zhejiang Province.