基于功效系数法的耕地利用集约度时空变异及预测

耕地集约利用是保障社会经济可持续发展的必要条件。利用2009-2012年新疆伊宁市及2012年各乡镇土地利用变更数据和社会经济发展数据,采用熵值法分别从耕地利用强度、投入强度、产出强度及耕地持续利用强度4个角度出发,选取11项评价因子构成耕地利用集约度评价体系。运用功效系数法对伊宁市耕地利用集约状况从横向和纵向两个方面进行了综合评价,并通过运用Arc GIS 9.3软件对耕地利用集约状况进行系统采样、半变异函数分析及空间插值方法,对伊宁市耕地利用集约度动态演变和空间分异特征进行研究。结果表明,伊宁市耕地利用集约度时序变化明显,近4年来呈现小幅度增长;耕地利用集约度区域差异性明显,呈现北高南低的态势;耕地集约利用水平具有明显的区域性,且较低、低耕地利用集约度区域从中心城区逐渐呈圆环式向周围蔓延。研究结果可为伊宁市耕地利用集约水平提高以及农业的持续发展提供科学依据。

Forecast and Analysis on Spatiotemporal Variation of Cultivated Land Intensive Use in Yining City Based on Efficacy Coefficient Method

The intensive use of cultivated land is a necessar y condition for sustainable development of economy and society. According to the statistical and sutvey data of land use change in Yining city from 2009 to 2012 and the data of the cities in Yining city in 2012,aiming at the cultivated land intensive use,the evaluation index system of cultivated land intensive use was established,which included 4 aspects and 12 specific indicators from the aspect of utilization degree,input intensity,output leve and sustainable conditionsl of land with the entropy method,aswell as evaluated the time serial change law and the spa-tial variation characteristics of cultivated land use through the efficacy coefficient method.After sampling were carried out,the semi-varogram analysis and block Kringing were used by ArcGIS 9.3 to analyze the dynamic evolution and spatial distribution of the intensive use of cultivat-ed land in Yining. The results indicated that the temporal variability of intensive use level of cultivated land was obvious and the level of cultivated in recent 4 a. The spatial variance of the intensive use was remark-able,showing a trend of in north area and lower in south area. The spatial distribution of the intensive use of cultivated land was imbalanced in Yining,moreover the lower and the low utilization degree of the city center had the tendency of ring type spreading. The results will provide a scientific basis for improving the level of intensive use of cultivated land for Yining as well as the sustainable development of agriculture.