粮食产量影响因素分析

以1993—2012年中国粮食产量及其主要影响因素的时间序列数据为样本,建立OLS回归模型,计算出各个因素对粮食产量的影响。结果表明,对中国粮食产量贡献最大的影响因子是农用柴油使用量,其次是粮食、农资、良种、农机具四项补贴及粮食播种面积,受灾面积对粮食产量也具有显著的负向影响。据此,提出稳定粮食播种面积、提高农业机械化水平和加大政府农业补贴力度等建议。

Analysis of the Influencing Factors of Grain Production

Based on the time series data of China grain production and its main influencing factors from 1993 to 2012, an OLS regression model was established to analyze the influence of various factors on gain production. The results showed: the usage amount of diesel fuel has the greatest contribution to China's grain output; four subsidies for growing grain, buying a-gricultural inputs, seed and farm machinery made the second largest contribution; the disaster area also had negative impact on grain production. Accordingly, keeping the sown area of grain stable, improving the level of agricultural mechanization and providing larger subsidies to farmers are important policy measures to increase grain production.