大豆价格波动对农户福利的影响

大豆价格波动关系到广大豆农的福利。基于中国1983-2012年大豆生产与消费的相关数据,并根据大豆的供给与需求价格弹性等参数,采用麦诺特福利效应模型考察大豆价格波动对农户福利变动的影响,研究了大豆价格波动导致农户福利变动的机理。结果表明,大豆价格波动导致农户整体福利恶化,大豆生产价格平均每变动10%,豆农的短期生产福利将变动1.32%,长期生产福利变动1.42%;大豆销售价格平均每变动10%,短期消费福利变动13.13%,长期消费福利将变动12.55%。大豆生产价格波动导致的农户福利变化在农户福利变动中起重要作用。大豆价格变动引起农户收入与消费支出变化的相对值决定农户总福利效应。最后提出了加大政策引导力度、保障生产者利益、构建信息平台等政策建议。

The Welfare Effects of Soybean Price Volatility on Farmers

Soybean price fluctuations related to the welfare of vast soybean farmers.Based on the analysis of 1983-2012 soy-bean production and consumption-related time series data of China, and soybean supply elasticity and demand elasticity are estimated, using the Minot welfare effects model to analysis farmers of the welfare changes impact caused by soybean price volatility,and to study mechanism of soybean price fluctuations lead to changes in the welfare of farmers.The results show that:The price fluctuation leads to the deterioration of the farmers' overall welfare.When soybean production price changes in per 10%, soybean farmers of short-term production benefits will change 1.32%, and the welfare of long-term production will change in 1.42%; When soybean sales price changes in the average 10%,the welfare of short-term consumer will change 13.13% and the welfare of long-term consumer will change 12.55%. Obviously,the welfare effects of soybean production price volatility on farmers play an important role in the overall.Changes in the relative value of farmers income and soybean con-sumption expenditures caused by soybean price volatility decided to farmers welfare effects of price volatility.. Finally, give some policy such as Strengthening policy guidance, protecting the interests of producers, and building information platform policy.