2004—2013:中国棉花生产率增长、技术进步与效率变化

运用DEA的Malmquist指数分析方法对中国2004—2013年棉花TFP的增长及其构成进行实证分析,阐释了棉花TFP变化的基本特征。结果显示,1中国棉花产业的全要素生产率年际波动较大,2004—2013年中国棉花TFP的年均增长率达到2.7%,其中技术进步的年均增长率为3.1%,技术效率的年均增长率为-0.3%;2技术进步是推进TFP增长的主要动力。由于近年来棉花技术缺乏创新,对TFP的促进作用越来越乏力;3纯技术效率过低是技术效率出现负增长的主要原因;4中国棉花TFP的增长具有区域不平衡的特征。各棉花主产区技术进步水平的不同导致TFP的增长存在显著差异,新疆已经成为中国棉花TFP增长最高的棉区,改变了三大棉花区域齐头并进的局面。

The Productivity Growth,Technical Progress and Efficiency Change of China's Cotton in 2004-2013

With the Malmquist index approach in data envelopment analysis (DEA),the growth and constitution of total factor productivity (TFP) of china′s cotton in 2004―2013 were empirically analyzed to illustrate the change features of the total factor productivity of cotton. The results showed that, first, the annual rate of TFP growth in China′s cotton industry fluctuated strongly.From 2004 to 2013,the annual rate of TFP growth of China's cotton was 2.7%,in which the annual growth rate of technical progress was 3.1%, the annual growth rate of technical efficiency was -0.3%. second, the technical progress was the prominent stimulus of TFP growth. For lack of innovation in recent years,the stimulative effect of cotton technology on TFP have become more and more weak.Three,the pure technical efficiency was too low,which was the major cause for negative growth of technical efficiency;Four,there was regional unevenness in the TFP growth of China′s cotton.The different technical progress rates of different cotton production regions resulted in significant difference of TFP growth,when Ⅹinjiang province have the highest TFP growth rate,which broke the original balance among three major cotton production regions.