日照市暖冬变化的不确定性及其对冬小麦生长的影响

为了确定山东省日照市暖冬特征,探索暖冬对冬小麦造成的影响,以日照市3个大监站为例,利用1951-2015年气候探测资料以及历年冬小麦生长发育期等观测资料,依据GB/T 21983-2008中暖冬计算公式,对历年来日照市冬季平均气温以及出现的暖冬给农业生产带来的影响进行了统计分析。结果表明,日照市单站暖冬变化具有不确定性,东港区暖冬阈值为0.4℃、莒县和五莲县均为0.5℃。其中1951-1985年为偏冷振荡期,全地区共出现18个单站暖冬,东港区占89%;1986-2015年为偏暖期,全地区共出现50个单站暖冬,17个区域暖冬,均出现在1978年以后,其中1991-1995年为连续5年区域暖冬年份,2013年则为1987年以来的惟一1个单站、区域冷冬年份。暖冬会造成冬小麦冬季分蘖增多,易出现旺苗。

Research on Uncertainty of Warm Winters Vary in Rizhao City and Its Effects on Winter Wheat

To determine the characteristics of the warm winter of Rizhao city and explore the impact of winter wheat caused by warm winter, taking three large regional monitoring stations sunshine as example, using the observational date of climate and the growth of winter wheat from 1951 to 2015,the average temperature in winter and effects of warm winters on agricul-tural production of Rizhao was statistical analysis according to the formula warm winter based on GB/T 21983-2008. The re-sults showed that, warm winter changes of a single station in Rizhao was uncertain, threshold value of warm winters was 0.4 in Dongguang area and 0.5 in JuXian and Wulian county,respectively. The period of 1951 to 1985 was colder oscillation pe-riod, a total of 18 region appeared single station mild winter,accounting for 89℅ of the urban area;and the period of 1986 to 2015 was the warmer periods,50 single station warm winters,17 regional warm winter,there both appeared after 1978. And five consecutive years from 1991 to 1995 were warm winters,and 2013 was the only one year both appeared the area and single station cold winter since 1987. Warm winter caused tillering increase of wheat,and seedings growing too fast.