中国粮食主产区耕地绿色低碳利用转型指数构建及分区

探究耕地绿色低碳转型方法与对策对于解决耕地环境本底问题,助推农业可持续发展,确保国家粮食安全、生态安全以及“双碳”目标的实现具有重要意义。该研究建立耕地绿色低碳利用投入-产出分析模型,基于“现状－目标”对比分析,构建耕地绿色低碳利用转型指数,划分耕地绿色低碳利用转型管控区,提出相应管控路径,并以粮食主产区171个地级市为对象进行实证研究。研究结果表明：1）2000—2020年间,粮食主产区耕地绿色低碳利用水平趋升,呈北高南低态势;2）预测2030年耕地绿色低碳水平会有所提高,但区域间增幅差异明显;3）降污减碳严控区、管控区、防护区和防污固碳保护区各占粮食主产区的9.36%、39.77%、10.52%和40.35%,主要分布在南部、中南部、山东省烟台市及东部沿海、内蒙古以及四川省等市;结合各区社会经济条件,提出相应强化耕地生产要素高效配置、创新耕地固碳减排技术、加强落实生产绿色低碳实践及建立耕地碳汇系统的差别化绿色低碳转型导向建议。研究结果对于拓展耕地绿色低碳利用转型理论与方法研究具有一定借鉴意义,也可为探索耕地绿色低碳转型路径,提出差别化管控建议,推动耕地可持续利用和农业绿色转型提供决策支持。

Index and zoning for green and low-carbon transition of cultivated land utilization in main grain-producing areas of China

The cultivated land environment has imposed the most serious constraints on national food and ecological security. The green and low-carbon transformation of cultivated land is of great significance to promote sustainable agriculture under the "dual carbon" goals. In this study, an input-output analysis model was established for the green and low-carbon utilization of cultivated land. The transition index was also constructed for the green and low-carbon utilization of cultivated land, according to a comparative analysis of the "status quo target". The governance areas were then grouped for the various regulation paths. A case study was conducted on 171 prefecture-level cities in the main grain-producing areas of China. Firstly, the temporal and spatial characteristics were analyzed for the green and low-carbon utilization efficiency of cultivated land from 2000 to 2020. Secondly, the indicators were predicted for the green and low-carbon utilization of cultivated land in 2030. Finally, 171 prefecture-level cities were grouped for the differentiated suggestions, according to the green and low-carbon index of cultivated land. The results indicate that there was an increasing trend in the green and low-carbon utilization level of cultivated land in the main grain-producing areas from 2000 to 2020, indicating a spatial pattern with the high in the north and the low in the south. The improved level was predicted in the green and low-carbon of cultivated land in 2030, but there were significant differences in the growth rates among regions. Strict control zones for pollution reduction and carbon reduction, control zones, and protection zones, as well as the pollution and carbon sequestration protection zones accounted for 9.36%, 39.77%, 10.52%, and 40.35% of the main grain production areas, respectively, which were distributed mainly in the southern, central and southern regions, Yantai city in Shandong Province, and cities along the eastern coast, Inner Mongolia, and Sichuan Province. Some suggestions were proposed to strengthen the efficient allocation of farmland production factors, according to the socio-economic conditions of each region. The farmland carbon sequestration and emission reduction technologies can be utilized to implement green and low-carbon production practices. Differentiated guidance of green and low-carbon transition was established for the carbon sink systems of farmland. The finding can provide strong reference and decision-making support to explore the path of green and low-carbon utilization transition of cultivated land. Differentiated regulation suggestions are also addressed to promote sustainable land use and green transition in modern agriculture.