柑桔发展的最佳增长率

采用互相关分析，对８０年代福建省柑桔业发展过程进行研究．结果表明：柑桔栽培平均投产期Ｔ＝５ａ；面积增长率（ＱＳ）与投产率（Ｑ）呈极显著负相关（Ｐ＜０．０１），二者的经验关系为线性反比，它们的积有效增长率ＱＥ＝Ｑ·ＱＳ．在理论上，ＱＳ＝０．３１４１时，有极大值ＱＥｍａｘ；当ＱＳ＞０．３１４１时，ＱＥ随ＱＳ增长反呈下降，在发展中应控制避免．兼顾发展与效益的关系，以Ｑ＝０．８５为保证率，经推算确定最佳面积增长率为０．１４－０．１８．

Optimium Increasing Rate in the Development of Citrus Production

The development of citrus production in Fujian Province during 1980s was analysed by cross-correlation analysis. The results showed that the mean period put into production (T) was 5 years, the rate of increasing area (QS) was strong negetive correlation with rate put into production (Q, P<0.01), both empirical correlation was linear inverse proportion and their prduct effective increasing rate QE=Q·QS.Theoretically,when QE=0.3141,it had the maximum value QEmax; when QE>0.3141, QE decreased with QS increasing.The later must be avoided in the citrus production. When both the development and return were given consideration, the optimum rate of increasing area was 0.14-0.18 by calculating with guaranteed rate Q=0.85.