锡林郭勒盟草地对气候变化的响应及其空间差异分析

基于内蒙古锡林郭勒盟1958-2008年逐月气温、降水资料,利用Miami模型和Thornthwaite模型,结合ArcGIS中的Kriging插值方法,分析该地区51年来草地生产潜力对气候变化的响应,并分别建立气温、降水量与气候生产潜力之间的线性回归模型,预测研究区草地未来的变化趋势。结果表明：51年来,研究区年平均...

Analysis on Response of Grasslands to Climate Change and Its Spatial Difference in Xilingol League

Changes of the temperature and precipitation in Xilingol League of Inner Mongolia in the recent 51 years and the response of grassland climatic productivity to these changes were analyzed based on the meteorological data observed during the period from 1958 to 2008 using the Miami model, Thornthwaite model, Kriging interpolation and mathematical statistics method. The results revealed that the temperature increased by 2.19 ℃ in recent 51 years, its increase rate was 0.43 ℃/10 a, but precipitation decreased slightly with a decrease rate of 6.35 mm/10 a. All these revealed that climate in Xilingol League trended to be a warming drying pattern, and the seasonal productivity of grasslands was decreased in varying degrees. As a result, the grassland climatic productivity was inclined to decrease. There was a significant correlation between the grassland climatic productivity and the annual precipitation, and the correlation coefficient was 0.98, which suggested that water was the main factor restricting the grassland climatic productivity. The regression model is Y=169.606+7.053t+1.142r(R=0.978, P<0.01),which suggested that the annual grassland climatic productivity will be increased or decreased by 7.05 g/(m²•a) if the mean annual temperature increases or decreases by 1 ℃, and the annual grassland climatic productivity will be increased or decreased by 1.14 g/(m²•a) if the annual precipitation increases or decreases by 1 mm.