Optimal control of native predators |
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Authors: | Julien Martin Allan F O’Connell Jr |
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Institution: | a Florida Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, University of Florida, FL 32611, USA b USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, 12100 Beech Forest Road, Laurel, MD 20708, USA c Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, Florida Fish and Wildlife Research Institute, St. Petersburg, FL 33701, USA d USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, Beltsville Lab, BARC 308E, 10300 Baltimore Ave., Beltsville, MD 20705, USA e USGS North Carolina Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Biology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27622, USA f National Park Service, 100 Alabama St. SW, Atlanta, GA 30303, USA g Cape Lookout National Seashore, 131 Charles Street, Harkers Island, NC 28531, USA |
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Abstract: | We apply decision theory in a structured decision-making framework to evaluate how control of raccoons (Procyon lotor), a native predator, can promote the conservation of a declining population of American Oystercatchers (Haematopus palliatus) on the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Our management objective was to maintain Oystercatcher productivity above a level deemed necessary for population recovery while minimizing raccoon removal. We evaluated several scenarios including no raccoon removal, and applied an adaptive optimization algorithm to account for parameter uncertainty. We show how adaptive optimization can be used to account for uncertainties about how raccoon control may affect Oystercatcher productivity. Adaptive management can reduce this type of uncertainty and is particularly well suited for addressing controversial management issues such as native predator control. The case study also offers several insights that may be relevant to the optimal control of other native predators. First, we found that stage-specific removal policies (e.g., yearling versus adult raccoon removals) were most efficient if the reproductive values among stage classes were very different. Second, we found that the optimal control of raccoons would result in higher Oystercatcher productivity than the minimum levels recommended for this species. Third, we found that removing more raccoons initially minimized the total number of removals necessary to meet long term management objectives. Finally, if for logistical reasons managers cannot sustain a removal program by removing a minimum number of raccoons annually, managers may run the risk of creating an ecological trap for Oystercatchers. |
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Keywords: | Structured decision-making Threatened and endangered species Raccoons Oystercatchers Adaptive management |
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