Removing erosion control projects increases bank swallow (Riparia riparia) population viability modeled along the Sacramento River, California, USA

Spatially-explicit population viability analysis (PVA) is a powerful method for modeling the extinction risk of populations that show variation over space and time. It is especially effective for comparing relative effect of different management scenarios on population dynamics. Here, I present a habitat patch-based PVA for a population of the California state-listed threatened bank swallow (Riparia riparia) nesting along the Sacramento River. This model incorporates the effects of habitat availability and location, density dependence, site fidelity, and stochasticity in survival and fecundity. River bank habitat patches suitable for this species were delineated using a geographic information systems (GIS) model of river bank height and were used in a PVA scenario analysis to assess the effects of habitat restoration—that could occur by removing bank erosion control projects (bank revetment)—on population viability. Sensitivity analysis showed that the model estimated probability of quasi-extinction (dropping below 2000 breeding pairs) ranged from 0 to 0.8 depending on the input parameters, with juvenile survival causing the greatest variability. However, comparing changes to the probability of quasi-extinction between the restored habitat scenario and current conditions showed a consistent 40-60% decrease in probability of quasi-extinction across all parameter combinations. The results of this research reaffirm the need for continued protection of the bank swallow as a listed species indicate that the removal of bank erosion control projects would increase viability of this population.