Ecological effects on estimates of effective population size in an annual plant

Effective population size (N_e) is a critical indicator of the vulnerability of a population to allele loss via genetic drift, and it can also be used to assess the evolutionary potential of a population. While some plant conservation plans have focused on outcrossing through cross-pollination as a way to increase estimated N_e, variance in reproductive output determined by ecological factors such as competition can also strongly affect estimated N_e. We examined the effects of intraspecific and interspecific competition, stressful soils, and local adaptation on estimates of N_e in an annual plant species. While ecological influences on plant growth rate variance have been predicted to influence estimates of N_e/N, we found a significant effect on the estimate of N_e/N, but no significant ecological effects on growth rate variance. Lower survivorship on stressful soil was the most important effect reducing estimates of N_e/N. If stochastic mortality is greater in environments that are abiotically stressful, then populations in these stressful environments may be slower to adapt because of lower census sizes and reduction of N_e/N. In populations of conservation concern, increasing survivorship may be of greater benefit for maximizing N_e than the reduction of variability in reproductive output among surviving adults.