1981-2013年湖南省蒸发量的时空变化特征

为揭示湖南省蒸发量的时空分布特征，基于1981—2013 年的日蒸发量观测值，采用气候倾向率、滑动平均、累积距平、Mann-Kendall 检验和R/S 分析法，对湖南省年、季蒸发量进行了时空变化分析、突变检验及变化趋势预测。结果表明：（1）33 年来湖南省年蒸发量总体呈波动上升趋势，春、秋、冬三季呈现出相似的增减趋势并决定了年蒸发量的变化趋势；（2）湖南省蒸发量主要集中于夏季，年代际变化具有明显的区域性；年、季节平均蒸发量的空间分布呈现由东南向西北递减的格局；（3）M-K突变分析表明，除夏季之外，春、秋、冬三季和年蒸发量整体均呈上升趋势，且突变点出现在2000年的春季和1983年的秋季；（4）年蒸发量整体上呈现较强的正持续性，四季中春季正持续性最为显著。

Spatio-temporal Change of Evaporation: Hunan, 1981-2013

The paper aims to reveal the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of evaporation in Hunan. Based on daily evaporation data observed from 1981 to 2013, the spatio-temporal change, mutation test and trends of annual and seasonal evaporation were discussed by using the linear regression, moving arithmetic average, cumulative anomaly, Mann-Kendall test and R/S analysis. The results showed that: (1) the annual evaporation presented a fluctuant increasing tendency in the 33 years, the evaporation change trends of spring, autumn and winter were similar and determined the change of the annual evaporation; (2) the evaporation in Hunan mainly concentrated in summer, in terms of the spatial distribution, the change of decadal evaporation had obvious regional characteristics; the annual and seasonal evaporation showed a decreasing tendency from the southeast to the northwest; (3) the results of M-K mutation analysis revealed that: spring, autumn, winter and annual evaporation presented an increasing tendency except summer, the abrupt change of evaporation occurred in spring, 2000 and autumn, 1983, respectively; (4) the results of R/S analysis showed that the annual evaporation presented a strongly positive persistence, and the evaporation in spring was most significant.