| 柑桔矢尖蚧一代幼蚧发生期数理统计预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵志模,吕慧平,张权炳. 柑桔矢尖蚧一代幼蚧发生期数理统计预测[J]. 植物保护学报, 1995, 22(3): 217-222 |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵志模 吕慧平 张权炳 |
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| 作者单位： | 西南农业大学植物保护系，西南农业大学植物保护系，中国农业科学院柑桔研究所 重庆 630716，重庆 630716，重庆 |
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| 基金项目： | 农业部“八五”重点项目“柑桔病虫综合防治”研究的一部分 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用１９７７－１９９２年共１６年的资料，从１－３月的２３个气象因子中，通过相关分析逐步变量选择，筛选出５个与矢蚧一代幼蚧发生期紧密相关的预报因子。这５个因子是２月温湿系数、３月均温和相对湿度、１－３月日均温及大于１０℃的天数。据此建立了预测矢蚧一代幼蚧发生期的多元回归方程、判别函数和条件频率列联表。经统计检验、对１９９３年的实测验证和计算历史符合率，均证明它们在理论和实践上是可行的。其中条件频率列
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| 关 键 词： | 矢尖蚧 多元分析 预测 列联表 柑桔类果树 |
SOME MATHEMATICAL METHODS FOR FORECASTING THE OCCURRENCE TIME OF FIRST GENERATION LARVAE OF CITRUS ARROWHEAD SCALE |
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| Zhao Zhimo,Lu Huiping and Zhang Quanbin. SOME MATHEMATICAL METHODS FOR FORECASTING THE OCCURRENCE TIME OF FIRST GENERATION LARVAE OF CITRUS ARROWHEAD SCALE[J]. Acta Phytophylacica Sinica, 1995, 22(3): 217-222 |
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| Authors: | Zhao Zhimo Lu Huiping Zhang Quanbin |
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| Affiliation: | Department of Plant Protection, Southwest Agricultural University, Chongqing,Department of Plant Protection, Southwest Agricultural University, Chongqing and Institute of Citrus Researches, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Chongqing |
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| Abstract: | Based on the data from 1977 to 1992 and by applying multi-factorial and contingency table analyses, five key factors were selected from 23 meteorological elements (Jan. to Mar. ) , and three mathematical methods were developed for forecasting the occurrence time of 1st generation larvae of citrus arrowhead scale Unaspis yananensis Kuwana. The results of 1993 forecast and historical coincidence rate in this 16 years were desirable, in which the contingency table method was most simple and easy, and capable to increase the successional data to the table. |
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| Keywords: | citrus arrowhead scale occurrence time multi-factorial analysis forecast contingency table |
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