| 多维时间序列分析在稻纵卷叶螟长期预测预报上的试用 |
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| 引用本文： | 周立阳,费惠新,张孝羲.多维时间序列分析在稻纵卷叶螟长期预测预报上的试用[J].植物保护学报,1995,22(1):1-6. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周立阳 费惠新 张孝羲 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京农业大学植物保护系，南京农业大学植物保护系，南京农业大学植物保护系 南京 210095，南京 210095，南京 210095 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用多维时间序列分析方法,以梅雨三要素作控制因子,对江苏通州市稻纵卷叶螟迁入代的迁入高峰日、高峰日蛾量及迁入代累计蛾量提前1年作预测,3年预测结果准确率很高,为害虫的长期预测预报提供了一种新的研究方法。
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| 关 键 词： | 多维时间序列分析 稻纵卷叶螟 预测预报 |
THE APPLICATION OF MULTIPLE DIMENSION TIME SERIES ANALYSIS METHOD IN LONG-TERM FORECASTING OF RICE LEAF ROLLER |
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| Zhou Liyang,Fei Huixin and Zhang Xiaoxi.THE APPLICATION OF MULTIPLE DIMENSION TIME SERIES ANALYSIS METHOD IN LONG-TERM FORECASTING OF RICE LEAF ROLLER[J].Acta Phytophylacica Sinica,1995,22(1):1-6. |
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| Authors: | Zhou Liyang Fei Huixin and Zhang Xiaoxi |
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| Institution: | Department of Plant Protection, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing,Department of Plant Protection, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing and Department of Plant Protection, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing |
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| Abstract: | Three determinatives of plum rains were used in CAR model as control factors to forecast the peak day of immigration, adult numbers caught on the peak day and accumulated adult numbers in the immigrant generation of rice leaf roller Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guenee one year ahead of practical occurrence in Tongzhou City, Jiangsu Province. The forecasting results were desirable and the accuracy was quite high in three successive years. This new method may also be tried for the long-term forecasting of other insect pests. |
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| Keywords: | multiple dimension time series analysis rice leaf roller forecasting |
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