| 小麦叶锈病中期预测模型的研制 |
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| 引用本文： | 曹克强,朱之堉,王拴马. 小麦叶锈病中期预测模型的研制[J]. 植物保护学报, 1995, 22(1): 57-61 |
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| 作者姓名： | 曹克强 朱之堉 王拴马 |
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| 作者单位： | 河北农业大学植物保护系，河北农业大学植物保护系，河北农业大学植物保护系 保定 071001，保定 071001，保定 071001 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据河北省保定市和辛集市两地近十年对小麦叶锈病的调查资料，建立了一个小麦叶锈病中期预测模型。Ｙ＝－２０．５９＋９．１２Ｘ１＋０．８５Ｘ２＋１．４１Ｘ３，Ｘ１为品种的抗性参数，Ｘ２为４月上中旬的总降雨量，Ｘ３为４月上中旬的总降雨次数，Ｙ为灌浆中期叶锈病的病情指数。通过对历史资料进行检验，预测准确率为８０％。本模型适合于河北省中南部麦区对叶锈病发生程度的预测。
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| 关 键 词： | 小麦 叶锈病 预测模型 中期预测 |
THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A MID-TERM FORECAST MODEL FOR LEAF RUST OF WHEAT |
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| Cao Keqiang,Zhu Zhiyu and Wang Shuanma. THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A MID-TERM FORECAST MODEL FOR LEAF RUST OF WHEAT[J]. Acta Phytophylacica Sinica, 1995, 22(1): 57-61 |
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| Authors: | Cao Keqiang Zhu Zhiyu Wang Shuanma |
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| Affiliation: | Department of Plant Protection, Hebei Agricultural University, Baoding,Department of Plant Protection, Hebei Agricultural University, Baoding and Department of Plant Protection, Hebei Agricultural University, Baoding |
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| Abstract: | Based on the investigation data from both Baoding and Xinji City during the recent ten years, a mid-term forecast model for leaf rust of wheat was established. It is:Y=-20. 59 9.12X1 0. 85X2 1. 41X3in which X1 means the index of cultivar rust resistance from 0 to 4 , X2 and X3 represent the total precipitation and the total raining times during the first 20 days of April, respectively. By validation on the historical data, the accurate rate is as high as 80%. The model can be used to predict the severity of leaf rust in the central and southern parts of Hebei Province. |
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| Keywords: | leaf rust of wheat forecast model |
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