Modelling near-natural silvicultural regimes for beech – an economic sensitivity analysis

Near-natural silvicultural regimes for beech (Fagus sylvatica L.), in the form of uneven-aged selective felling, receive increasing interest in Denmark. This is partly due to the ability of this system to preserve the forest climate and maintain important ecological functions such as bio-geochemical cycling and biodiversity conservation. The optimal age to convert from even-aged management to uneven-aged selective felling seems to be as early as possible, about 55 years, when sufficient natural seeding can be expected. A fixed conversion period of 100 years is assumed. This regime, here analysed by the use of a so-called chessboard model, appears to be economically superior to clear felling if the regime is initiated in medium-aged stands down to the age of 55 years, assuming a high site quality and a real discount rate of 3% per annum. Uneven-aged selective felling seems to be economically superior to even-aged natural regeneration, assuming that: (i) the stumpage prices of regeneration harvests are increased by 10%, or (ii) the diameters of regeneration harvests exceed those of even-aged management by about 17% simultaneous with an identical increase of the maximum stumpage price. Clear felling seems to be the more profitable regime only if: (i) the stand is close to the economic optimal rotation age for clear felling, and (ii) when the stumpage prices of regeneration harvests achieved by use of the uneven-aged selective management regime are reduced by 10% or more due to quality defects caused by prolonged rotation ages. The above results are sensitive to variation of stumpage prices, but less so to variation of regeneration costs associated with near-natural management systems. However, the near-natural silvicultural regimes may be unable to fulfill the liquidity objectives following from the application of traditional management systems.