基于大尺度因子的江苏稻区稻瘟病气象等级长期预测

为较早地准确预测水稻稻瘟病发生发展的气象等级,利用大气环流和太平洋海温对气象条件影响的滞后性,采用最优相关和空间拓扑分析技术,结合滑动平均和主成分识别法,筛选出对江苏稻区稻瘟病指数影响最显著且稳定独立的大尺度预报因子,分别建立了基于大气环流因子和基于海温因子的稻瘟病气象等级长期预测模型。经历史拟合和试报检验,模型效果理想,能提前一个月预测出水稻稻瘟病发生的气象等级。该模型的预测结果对江苏稻区稻瘟病防治具有重要意义。

Long term prediction models based on large scale factors for meteorological grade of the rice blast in Jiangsu rice area

In order to predict the degree of meteorological grade of rice blast early and accurately, two long term prediction models of meteorological grade for rice blast were established based on the atmospheric circulation factors and based on SST factors by the optimal correlation and spatial topological analysis technology and the impact of atmospheric circulation and Pacific SST on meteorological conditions (tread effect). In addition, the methods of moving average and principal component were used for the forecast factor having stability and independence to the comprehensive index of rice blast. Furthermore, through the historical fitting and forecast testing, the results of the prediction models were satisfactory. The meteorological grade of rice blast could be predicted by the models at least one month in advance. Therefore, the prediction results have a significant guiding meaning for agricultural prevention and control of rice blast in Jiangsu rice area