The colonisation of Scots pine (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Pinus sylvestris</Emphasis> L.) by <Emphasis Type="Italic">Tomicus minor</Emphasis> Hartig in southern Poland: modelling and monitoring

Tomicus minor Hartig (Col., Curculionidae, Scolytinae), occurring on Pinus sylvestris L., is a species which demonstrates high reproductive capability on weakened stands, accelerating the process of forest death. In protected areas, T. minor is regarded as a sensitive bioindicator that reacts to decline in the health and vitality of forests. Although there have been many publications concerning T. minor, no precise method has yet been given for estimating its population so as to enable the monitoring of forest vitality and assessment of the role played by T. minor in the forest ecosystem. The aim of the present work is to develop a statistical method for estimating populations of T. minor, requiring minimum work and interference with the forest ecosystem and permitting the computation of estimation errors. Research was carried out in the years 1992–2011 in pine stands aged over 80 years, growing in a variety of habitats and situated at varying distances from sawmill timber yards. Attack density of T. minor was measured on trap logs made from uninfested living trees. The population of T. minor on the trap logs was described using a multiple linear regression model with two explanatory variables. Among the features investigated, the T. minor population was found to depend significantly on the number of egg galleries on the fifth metre of the trap log counted from the thinner end (p < 0.001) and on the diameter of the trap log in bark at the thinner end (p < 0.05). The model explains approximately 85% (R ² = 0.8564) of the variation in the total number of T. minor egg galleries on the trap logs. The numbering of units beginning from the thinner end of the log enabled increased precision in determining the model parameter resulting from the concentration of egg galleries on certain units of the log. In all validated plots, the mean real and model values for the number of T. minor egg galleries on the trap logs are similar (p > 0.5), confirming the high accuracy of the developed model.