Evaluation of tree and stand-level growth models using national forest inventory data

Two models, Carbware (CW) and Growfor (GF), of different resolution and based on different frameworks were evaluated in relation to stand-level forecasts of volume and basal area using Ireland’s National Forest Inventory (NFI) data. CW is a distance-independent single-tree model that is based on diameter increment. GF is a stand-level dynamic empirical model that uses the von Bertalanffy–Richards growth equation in a state-space framework. NFI data were used as input to the models, and each model’s projections were compared to NFI data at the next measurement cycle. The NFI is a permanent sampling system with the objective to assess the composition and extent of the forest estate. A subset of the NFI was used in the study, single-species even-aged plots comprising Sitka spruce and lodgepole pine. The accuracy and performance of the CW and GF models were analysed using residual analysis and standard statistical techniques. Results show that both models require improvement, though the study has raised concerns regarding the suitability of the NFI data for this type of investigation.