Modelling the effects of wetness duration and fruit maturity on infection of apple fruits of Cox's Orange Pippin and two clones of Gala by Venturia inaequalis

The effects were investigated of fruit maturity and duration of wetness on infection of apple fruits by Venturia inaequalis , and subsequent scab development. Incubation rate (inverse of median incubation period) increased linearly with increasing temperature (5–20°C) on detached 5-week-old fruits of cv. Royal Gala. Fruits were highly susceptible in the early stages of development, but became increasingly resistant as they matured. Inoculation of attached 12-week-old and detached near-mature fruits did not result in any lesions, while inoculation of attached 4-, 5-, 7- and 9-week-old fruits resulted in various levels of infection. Fruits of cv. Mondial Gala were more susceptible than those of cv. Cox's Orange Pippin. On cv. Mondial Gala, a wet period of 9 h resulted in ≈ 90% infection of 4-week-old fruits, but only 9% infection of 9-week-old fruits. Numbers of scab lesions on an apple generally followed a Neyman type A rather than a Poisson distribution, indicating a certain degree of aggregation of lesions on a fruit. A two-parameter generalization of the Poisson model described the observed incidence–density relationship well. A longer duration of wetness was required to result in a similar level of scab infection on old fruits to that on young fruits. On cv. Mondial Gala, wet periods of 9 and 32 h were required for ≈ 90% incidence of fruit scab on 4- and 7-week-old fruits, respectively. A mathematical model was developed to relate the incidence of fruit scab to duration of wetness and fruit maturity. The potential use of these results in practical disease management is discussed.