| 基于新陈代谢GM（1,1）-Markov链模型的有效灌溉面积预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 何自立,马孝义,靳国云,甘学涛.基于新陈代谢GM（1,1）-Markov链模型的有效灌溉面积预测[J].灌溉排水学报,2011,30(4):107-110. |
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| 作者姓名： | 何自立 马孝义 靳国云 甘学涛 |
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| 作者单位： | 西北农林科技大学旱区农业水土工程教育部重点实验室,陕西杨凌,712100 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(50879072); 西北农林科技大学人才专项基金(BJRC-2009-001); 留学回国人员科研启动项目(Z111020908) |
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| 摘 要： | 采用新陈代谢GM（1,1）模型对全国有效灌溉面积的动态变化进行初次拟合和预测,并根据有效灌溉面积时间序列波动的随机性,利用Markov链模型对新陈代谢GM（1,1）模型的残差进行修正,以概率形式确定出未来全国有效灌溉面积的动态变化区间,并依此模型预测未来10年全国有效灌溉面积的发展趋势。结果表明,该模型预测结果准确可靠...
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| 关 键 词： | 有效灌溉面积 新陈代谢GM(1 1) Markov链 预测 |
Effective Irrigated Area Prediction Based on Metabolism GM(1,1)-Markov Chain Model |
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| HE Zi-li,MAO Xiao-yi,JIN Guo-yun,GAN Xue-tao.Effective Irrigated Area Prediction Based on Metabolism GM(1,1)-Markov Chain Model[J].Journal of Irrigation and Drainage,2011,30(4):107-110. |
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| Authors: | HE Zi-li MAO Xiao-yi JIN Guo-yun GAN Xue-tao |
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| Institution: | HE Zi-li,MAO Xiao-yi,JIN Guo-yun,GAN Xue-tao(Key Laboratory of Agricultural Soil and Water Engineering in Arid Areas Subordinated to the Ministry of Education,Northwest A & F University,Yangling 712100,China) |
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| Abstract: | Metabolism GM(1,1) model was used to fit and predict dynamic change of effective irrigated area in China.The residuals of Metabolism GM(1,1) model were revised by the Markov chain model in order to improve the precision of the prediction.Because of the fluctuation of time series,the predicted value for the effective irrigated area was demonstrated with the probability form.And then national effective irrigated area was predicted from 2010 to 2019 based on the established Metabolism GM(1,1)-Markov Chain Mode... |
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| Keywords: | effective irrigated area Metabolism GM(1 1) model Markov chain prediction |
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