云南省干旱灾害对当地农产品价格变化影响的实证研究——基于16个地州的面板数据

根据云南省2003—2016年的统计年鉴等相关资料,利用面板数据模型,分析干旱灾害对云南省农产品价格变化的影响,并提出可行建议,以期为云南省农业的可持续发展和科学决策提供借鉴。结果表明,干旱灾害的频繁发生,是导致云南省农产品价格变化的最主要因素,且干旱灾害对农产品价格具有显著的制约作用。此外,云南省年平均降水量每减少100 mm,全省农产品价格降低11.23%,并且在不同的地州,这种影响程度大不相同,即不同的地州抵抗干旱灾害影响农产品价格变动的能力大不相同,其中能力最强的是西双版纳自治州,最弱的是临沧市。

Influence of Drought Disaster on Agricultural Products Price Change: An Empirical Study Based on the Panel Data of 16 Prefectures in Yunnan

According to relevant documents such as 2003-2016 statistical yearbooks of Yunnan Province, the author analyzes the impact of drought on the change of agricultural products price by panel data model, and proposes some feasible suggestions, in order to provide a reference for decision-making in the sustainable development of agriculture. The results indicated that the frequent occurrence of drought was the most important factor for the change of agricultural products price in Yunnan Province, and drought also restricted the price of agricultural products significantly. In addition, the price of agricultural products across Yunnan Province would decrease by 11.23% if the average annual precipitation reduced by 100 mm, and the impact degree in different regions varied a lot, meaning that different regions had different resistance abilities to the impact of drought concerning the change of agricultural products price, with Xishuangbanna Autonomous Prefecture ranking the first whereas Lincang City ranking the last.