耕地粮食生产能力估算模型研究进展

粮食生产能力估算模型是研究粮食生产能力的科学手段之一,是分析当前及今后粮食生产能力的必要手段。文章总结了国内外近几十年来用于耕地粮食生产能力估算的模型,分析了以机理性模型、统计模型及综合模型为代表的三类耕地粮食生产能力模型的研究脉络,并针对这几类模型的适用范围及国内外应用情况进行对比分析。结果表明,综合模型充分利用机理性模型、统计模型特点,取长补短,为目前较为有效、准确的估算耕地粮食生产能力。但通过对已有模型的研究可以发现这些模型仍存在一些问题,该类模型应该向着多方法、多角度交叉,社会因素结合自然因素及多种模型综合发展的方向继续改进,逐步加强研究方法的更新和研究成果的应用推广。

Study on the models of cultivated grain production capacity

Using the model to calculate the cultivated grain production capacity is one of the scientific instruments,which is also necessary for analyzing the current and future cultivated grain production capacity.This paper summarizes both domestic and foreign estimation models of grain production capacity in the last decades,analyzes the application of mechanism models,statistical models and integrated models of grain production capacity,and makes statistical analysis in grain production capacity through the factors such as light,temperature,moisture,climate,soil condition,est..Also,comparison and analysis are presented relating to both the range and the application among these types of models.The result shows that the integrated models of grain productive capacity could make full advantage of mechanism models and statistical models,and could be regarded as an effective,accurate method for production estimation.But there are still some problems,we have offered the suggestions to the existing problems and prospects: the cultivated grain production capacity should be linked not only with natural factors but also social,economic and technological factors as well;the perfectness of physical-based models also needs more supporting data,and the help of correlative technique with the combination of multiple methods and multi-disciplinary knowledge.Grain production capacity will be more important in agricultural productivity along with further researches,so we should update the research methods and meanwhile promote the popularization of research results.