气候变化对我国油菜生产的影响

近年来，我国气候发生了显著变化：一是年平均气温显著升高；二是年降水总量有增加趋势，但区域性和季节性明显；三是极端气候事件频率和强度显著增加；四是CO2浓度持续升高；五是日照时数缩短明显。受其影响，我国油菜种植面积近年来显著增加，特别是冬油菜，有明显的“北移、西扩”趋势，这与气温升高引起作物种植北界北移有关。尽管我国油菜的单产也呈现增加趋势，但其与气象因子变化之间的关系目前还不明确。由极端气候引起的农业灾害显著增加，油菜生产的不稳定性增大。因此，提高综合抗逆能力、促进稳产是油菜生产急需解决的问题。

Influences of Climate Changes on Oilseed Rape Production in China

Recently, the climatic conditions have been changed significantly in China, which is included the following aspects： 1 ）Annual average air temperature is significantly increased; 2）The annual average precipitation is slightly increased with spatial and temporal difference; 3 ）The frequency and intensity of extreme climate events is significantly increased; 4）The CO2 concentration is continuously increased; 5 ）The sunshine hours are significantly decreased. Consequently, the cultivation area of oilseed rape, especially of winter oilseed rape, is significantly increased with the tendency that the planting boundary is moved to further northern and western. Although the rapeseed yield per unit area is significantly increased in recent years, the relations between the rapeseed yield and climatic factors are still unclear. While, the instability of rapeseed production is significantly increased with the frequency and intensity of extreme climate event increased. Therefore, it is a major assignment to increase the cross tolerance to various stresses and increase the stability of productivity of oilseed rape.