丘陵山区县域耕地资源变化及驱动力研究 --以湖北省咸宁市咸安区为例

耕地的变化是区域土地利用变化的核心,其变化和流向反映了社会经济的基本态势。利用鄂南丘陵山区咸安区的统计资料对近50年来的耕地数量变化的时间特征进行了研究,并应用相关分析法、主成分分析法和回归分析法对咸安区耕地资源近10年变化的驱动因子进行了定量研究,建立驱动因子回归模型。结果表明:1949~1963年耕地面积迅速扩大,1963~2000年耕地面积呈下降的趋势;人口、经济等因素是耕地变化的主要驱动因子。丘陵山区耕地资源的保护应控制人口、限制经济因素特别是城市化对耕地的占用。该成果为进一步研究鄂南丘陵山区耕地资源变化打下基础,为合理地利用耕地和保护耕地提供参考。

Studies on Change and Driving Forces of the Cultivated Land Resource in South Mound Region--A Case of Xian'an County, Xianning City of Hubei Province

The change of cultivated land is core of regional land utilization change. It's change and change trend reflects basic state of society economy. The case is chosen in Xian'an county which is one of typical mound county in south of Hubei province. The data obtaining form statistical sources is used. The change of cultivated land of Xianan county from 1949 to 2000 was analyzed by using statistical data. Then the driving forces factors of the cultivated land resource change of Xianan in recent 10 years was studied by using relevance analysis, principal component analysis and regression analysis. The result indicates that the area of cultivated lang was expanded rapidly in 1949-1963 and had trend of decrease in 1963-2000. The growth of population and economic development are dominical factors for change of cultivated land.