中国与巴西农产品贸易的动态及前景分析

在中国农产品进口需求持续增长和巴西农产品市场亟需拓展的共同作用下,中国和巴西两国的双边农产品贸易快速发展,并对世界农产品贸易格局产生了重要影响。为深入了解中国和巴西两国的双边农产品贸易状况,利用贸易强度指数、产业内贸易指数、显性比较优势指数和贸易互补性指数就中国和巴西两国的双边农产品贸易模式和动态进行分析,并对其发展前景进行了展望。研究发现,中国与巴西的双边农产品贸易是基于各自的农业资源禀赋而开展的,两国的农产品比较优势差异较大,这是导致二者双边贸易市场地位极不对等的重要原因;中国和巴西农产品贸易具有较高的贸易强度,但更多体现为产业间贸易,产业内贸易程度则明显偏低;中国和巴西农产品贸易具有较强的互补性,所以两国贸易的提升空间仍然较大,但双边贸易的进一步发展将会扩大中国农产品贸易的逆差。

Dynamic and Potential of Agricultural Products Trade between China and Brazil

Bilateral agricultural products trade between China and Brazil developed rapidly, with the combined action of increasing growth of agricultural products import demand in China and the market developing of agricultural products in Brazil, which also had an important impact on the pattern of the world agricultural products market. To in depth analyze the bilateral agricultural products trade between China and Brazil, the author constructed a detailed framework of the trade pattern, dynamic and development prospects about bilateral agricultural products trade, by using trade intensity index, intra-industry trade index, revealed comparative advantage index and trade complementarity index. We found that China-Brazil bilateral agricultural products trade based on their own resource endowments, and the comparative advantage of their agricultural products was quite different, which were the main causes for highly uneven market position in China-Brazil trade; the level of China-Brazil agricultural trade intensity was high, while the level of intra- industry trade was low, and the bilateral trade mainly presented an inter-industry trade; owing to the strong complementarity of China-Brazil agricultural trade, the bilateral trade had a huge potential space to be improved, even though it will be very likely to lead a growing gap of China＇s agricultural trade deficit.