2012/13榨季国内外食糖市场回顾与2013/14榨季展望

201213榨季国内食糖生产全部结束,全国共生产食糖1306.84万t,较上榨季增加13.47%。201213榨季,全球食糖供给继续过剩和宏观经济衰退使国际糖价跌破37.48美分kg,受累于疲软的国际糖价和国内食糖供给压力,国内糖价面临很大的下行压力。为保护中国糖农和糖厂的利益,商务部201213榨季已先后3次共收储180万t国家储备糖,收储底价为6100元t,但临储政策对中国糖价的支撑作用并不显著,现货价格跌破5500元t,期货价格跌破5000元t。2010和2011年的高糖价刺激了糖料种植面积的扩大,中国糖业协会数据显示,2012年全国糖料播种面积为190.232万hm2,同比增长5.05%,201213榨季连续第2榨季增产。展望201314榨季,由于印度、泰国和俄罗斯食糖增产,预计全球食糖市场将连续第3榨季处于供给过剩状态,未来国际糖价很难出现大幅反弹;国内食糖虽然进入了增产周期使产需缺口进一步缩小,但国内外食糖价差持续位于高位,将继续刺激国际食糖进口,预计新榨季国内食糖将继续面临供过于求的压力。由于目前进口糖是中国食糖供过于求的主要原因,所以201314榨季国内糖价在很大程度上将取决于全球食糖的产量情况。

Domestic and Foreign Sugar Markets in 2012/13 Crushing Season and Their Prospects in 2013/14 Crushing Season

Domestic sugar production has been finished in 2012/13 crushing season, producing 13.068 4 million tons sugar, up 13. 47% from the crushing season earlier. In 2012/13 crushing season, the successive surplus of global sugar and recession of macro-economics made international sugar price below 37.48 cents per kilogram. With weak international sugar price and great domestic sugar supply, domestic sugar price was under a lot of pressure to go down. To protect the interests of sugar farmers and mills, the Ministry of Commerce has successively purchased three times a total of 1.8 million tons of sugar reserves, with base price 6 100 RMB per ton, but the effect of reserving policy to support domestic sugar price was not obvious, spot price fell below 5 500 RMB per ton and futures price below 5 000 RMB per ton. High prices in 2010 and 2011 have stimulated sugar planting areas to expand, according to data from China Sugar Association, national sugar planting area was 1. 902 32 million hectare in 2012, up 5.05% against 2011, and 2012/13 crushing season was the second production increase crushing season. Looking forward to 2013/14 crushing season, due to production increase in India, Thailand and Russia, world sugar market will be the third oversupply crushing season, in the future international sugar prices will be difficult to gain a sharp rebound; though domestic sugar production is in the increase cycle and gap between supply and demand has narrowed, spreads between home and abroad will continue stimulating international sugar imports, domestic sugar in the new crushing season will still face the pressure of oversupply. As at present imported sugar is the main reason for the surplus of domestic sugar market, domestic sugar price in 2013/14 crushing season will mostly depend on global sugar production.